Statistics 224: Introductory Statistics for Engineers

Check www.stat.wisc.edu/~jgillett/224 for updates to this tentative syllabus.

Goals
You will understand statistical concepts and methods including collecting, describing, and displaying data; fitting a line to data; probability, random variables, and probability distributions; random sampling and sampling distributions; inference about means and proportions, including confidence intervals and hypothesis tests; factorial experiments; and statistical quality control.

You will be a critical reader of statistical claims.

Teachers
 Name Office hours Phone Email Gillett, John MSC 1217A 262-7478 jgillett@wisc.edu Luers, Brook MSC 1245H luers@stat.wisc.edu Nguyen, Duy MSC 1245 dnguyen@stat.wisc.edu Park, Gunwoong MSC B248 parkg@stat.wisc.edu

Class Times
 Lecture 001 MWF   9:55-10:45 Psychology 105 (Gillett, John) Discussions 311 Mo 3:30-4:20 Sterling 1407 (Park, Gunwoong) 312 Mo 12:05-12:55 Sterling 2323 (Nguyen, Duy) 313 Mo 1:20-2:10 Education 151 (Luers, Brook) 314 Mo 2:25-3:15 Sterling 2329 (Park, Gunwoong) Lecture 002 MWF 11:00-11:50 Psychology 107 (Gillett, John) Discussions 321 Tu 2:25-3:15 Van Vleck B231 (Luers, Brook) 322 Tu 3:30-4:20 Social Sciences 6224 (Nguyen, Duy) 323 Tu 12:05-12:55 Noland 342 (Luers, Brook) 324 Tu 1:20-2:10 Birge 348 (Nguyen, Duy)

Textbook
Principles of Statistics for Engineers and Scientists by William Navidi (ISBN-13: 9780077289317). (A cheaper electronic version is at www.CourseSmart.com.)

Computing

A scientific calculator is required for exams and homework. Here are instructions for some common calculators. A computer is required for homework. We will use R, a statistical programming language, via RStudio, an integrated development environment. We won't study R, but will use it by copying and modifying example R code. Here's an informal R guide (code stripped out: 1.R, 2.R, 4.R, 5.R, 6.R, 7.R, 8.R, 9.R), which I'll update as we proceed through the course. If you have a laptop, feel free to bring it to discussion for help with R.

Help
The TAs and I are eager to help in class and office hours. Free tutors are available daily in MSC 1586: see www.stat.wisc.edu/courses/Tutorial_Schedule.

About 700 points are available on two midterm exams (150 each), a final exam (200), homework (112), and online quizzes (88). I'll assign grades according to the percentage scale, A = [92,100], AB = [88,92), B = [82,88), BC = [78,82), C = [70,78), D = [60,70), F = [0,60) (92% of points => A); and according to the percentile scale, A = 70, AB = 60, B = 45, BC = 30, C = 10, D = 5, F = 0 (performing better than 70% of the class => A). Your grade will be the higher of these two grades.

Homework and online quizzes will usually be due Fridays at the start of lecture. I'll post them in the schedule, below, a week before they're due. Write your name, discussion number, and TA on the first page of homework. Show your work. Homework must be easily legible, with pages joined by a staple. Homework is graded on this scale:
 8/8 almost all correct, with adequate work shown 6/8 pretty good 4/8 incomplete, or a lot wrong, or inadequate work shown 0/8 not turned in or some other big problem

If you anticipate religious or other conflicts with course requirements, or if you require accomodation due to disability, you must notify me during the first three weeks of class. You may not make up missed homework or exams, except in the rare case of a documented, serious problem beyond your control. (Well, there's an exception: if you give me late homework in person before I leave on Friday, which is usually around 1:10, I'll accept it with a 25% late penalty.)

I encourage you to discuss the course with others, but you must write homework, quizzes, and exams by yourself and prevent others from copying your work. (See the UW Academic Misconduct policy.)

Lecture notes
I'll post lecture notes a week at a time by changing book section numbers (like "1.1") in the schedule, below, to links.

Tentative Schedule
 Week #: Date Subject Due 01: 09/01/13 (classes start Tuesday) 1 Summarizing Univariate Data 1.1 Sampling 1.2 Summary Statistics 1.3 Graphical Summaries F 9/06: nothing 02: 09/08 2 Summarizing Bivariate Data 2.1 The Correlation Coefficient 2.2 The Least-Squares Line   2.3 Features and Limitations of the Least-Squares Line F 9/13 1.1: 2,3,4,5 1.2: 1-9,12,14,16 1.3: 2,4,6,8,12 Quiz 1 (login help) 03: 09/15 3 Probability 3.1 Basic Ideas 3.2 Conditional Probability and Independence 3.3 Random Variables F 9/20: 2.1: 2,3,7,8 2.2: 6 2.3: 4,7,10 Quiz 2 04: 09/22 3.4 Functions of Random Variables 4 Commonly Used Distributions 4.1 The Binomial Distribution F 9/27: 3.1: 2,5,8 3.2: 1,3,4,6,10 3.3: 3,6,7,14 3.4: 1(a,b),5,10,14 Quiz 3 05: 09/29 4.2 The Poisson Distribution   4.5 The Exponential Distribution   4.6 Some Other Continuous Distributions 4.3 The Normal Distribution (extra problem)   4.4 The Lognormal Distribution F 10/04: 4.1: 1(a,c,e,f),5,13,16 4.2: 1(a,d,e,f),7,8 4.5: 3,6 4.6: 1 (no quiz) 06: 10/06 4.7 Probability Plots   4.8 The Central Limit Theorem 5 Point and Interval Estimation for a Single Sample 5.1 Point Estimation   5.2 Large-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean Review Q & A F 10/11: 4.3: 1,3(c,d,e),4(b,d),9,11 4.4: 1,6 4.7: 1,5,6,7 4.8: 2,3,11 Quiz 4 07: 10/13 Exam 1: Monday, October 14 (rules, formulas, tables, last semester's exam and key) (key 1; key 2; midterm 1 course grades) 5.3 Confidence Intervals for Proportions   5.4 Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean (t table) [omit 5.5 Prediction Intervals and Tolerance Intervals] F 10/18 5.1: 1,2,3,4,5 5.2: 1(a,b),2(a,b),3,5 (no quiz) 08: 10/20 6 Hypothesis Tests for a Single Sample 6.1 Large-Sample Tests for a Population Mean 6.3 Tests for a Population Proportion 6.2 Drawing Conclusions from the Results of Hypothesis Tests F 10/25: 5.3: 1,12 5.4: 1(a,b),3(a,b),6,8,10,14 Quiz 5 6.1: 1,3,10,12,14 09: 10/27 6.4 Small-Sample Tests for a Population Mean 6.5 The Chi-Square Test 6.8 Multiple Tests F 11/1: 6.3: 1,6,9,12,13 6.2: 1-5,7,9b,12-14,16 6.4: 1,3,6,12,13 (no quiz) 10: 11/03 6.6 Fixed-Level Testing   6.7 Power (extra example) 7 Inferences for Two Samples 7.1 Large-Sample Inferences on the Difference Between Two Population Means F 11/8: 6.5: 1,2,9,10,13,14 6.8: 1,3 (no quiz) 11: 11/10 7.2 Inferences on the Difference Between Two Proportions 7.3 Small-Sample Inferences on the Difference Between Two Means 7.4 Inferences Using Paired Data F 11/15: 6.6: 1,2bcd,3,6 6.7: 1-5,8,9 Quiz 6 7.1: 1,18,20 7.2: 4,7,15,20,21 12: 11/17 7.5 The F Test for Equality of Variance 8 Inference in Linear Models 8.1 Inferences Using the Least-Squares Coefficients 8.2 Checking Assumptions F 11/22: 7.3: 8,16,22,23 7.4: 7,8,14,18,19 7.5: 1-4 Quiz 7 13: 11/24 Exam 2: Monday, November 25 (rules; formulas, tables, last semester's exam and key) (key 1; key 2; midterm 2 course grades) 8.3 Multiple Regression [omit 8.4] [ F 11/29: Thanksgiving break ] F 11/29: nothing 14: 12/01 9 Factorial Experiments 9.1 One-Factor Experiments [omit 9.2 Pairwise Comparisons in One-Factor Experiments] 9.3 (part 1) Two-Factor Experiments F 12/6: 8.1: 1a-e,3a-e,4,9a-d,15 8.2: 1abc,3,7,9 8.3: 1,2,9a-c,11,15,18 Quiz 8 15: 12/08 9.3 (part 2) Two-Factor Experiments [omit 9.4 Randomized Complete Block Designs] 9.5 2p Factorial Experiments 9.5 (part 2) [omit 10] F 12/13: 9.1: 1,8,10,11 9.3: 1,5 Final Exam (rules, formulas) Lecture 1 (MWF  9:55): Thursday December 19 2:45-4:45 Chamberlin 2241 Lecture 2 (MWF 11:00): Friday December 20 12:25-2:25 Chamberlin 2241 (9.5: 3,6,8, but don't turn it in) (optional Quiz 9: scores don't count)