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\begin{document}

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%\date{January 23, 2003}

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\title{Stat 312: Lecture 5\\
 Confidence Intervals}

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\author{Moo K. Chung\\
mchung@stat.wisc.edu}
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\section*{Concepts}
\begin{enumerate}
\item For population parameter $\theta$, 95$\%$ confidence interval $(\hat \theta_L,\hat \theta_U)$ of $\theta$ is computed by solving $$P( \hat \theta_L \leq \theta \leq \hat \theta_U)=0.95$$
   
\item Let $X_i \sim N(\mu,\sigma^2)$ with known $\sigma^2$ and unknown $\mu$. 95$\%$ {\em confidence interval} for $\mu$ is $$\hat \mu_L =\bar x - 1.96 \cdot \sigma/\sqrt{n},\; \hat \mu_U=\bar x + 1.96 \cdot \sigma/\sqrt{n}.$$

\item  Let $X_i \sim N(\mu,\sigma^2)$ with known $\sigma^2$ and unknown $\mu$. $100(1-\alpha)\%$ confidence interval for $\mu$ is. 
$$\hat \mu_L =\bar x - z_{\alpha/2} \cdot \sigma/\sqrt{n},\; \hat \mu_U=\bar x + z_{\alpha/2} \cdot \sigma/\sqrt{n}.$$

\end{enumerate} 

\section*{In-class problems}
Continuing Exercise 6.25. Assuming $\sigma=18.86$, find $95\%$ confidence interval of $\mu$.
\begin{verbatim}
> b<-qnorm(0.975,0,sigma/sqrt(10))
> a<-qnorm(0.025,0,sigma/sqrt(10))
> b
[1] 11.68933
> a
[1] -11.68933
> mean(X)-b
[1] 372.7107
> mean(X)-a
[1] 396.0893

> qnorm(0.995)
[1] 2.575829
> qnorm(0.99)
[1] 2.326348
> qnorm(0.975)
[1] 1.959964
> qnorm(0.95)
[1] 1.644854
\end{verbatim}
\section*{Self-study problems}
Example 7.2.,7.3.,7.4.,7.5.

\section*{Assignment II.}
Due Feb 13. 11:00am.\\ 
Exercise 6.30., 7.4., 7.10., 7.14., 7.22., 7.26.\\

{\bf Bonus Problem} (Hard). Let $X_1,\cdots,X_n$ be a random sample with mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$. Among all estimators of the form $\hat \mu = \sum_{j=1}^n c_jX_J$, find MVUE and prove that it is in fact MVUE. Hand in this problem directly to the instructor {\em during the office hour}. No partial credit for this problem.

\section*{Midterms}
One page note and a calculator are allowed.\\
Midterm I. March 4, 11:00am-12:15pm (Tuesday).\\
Midterm II. April 15, 11:00am-12:15pm (Tuesday).\\
4 problems will be given: 1 easy, 2 medium difficulty and 1 challenging problems.
Mock midterm problems will be posted on the WEB one week before the midterms. 
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